The New Zealand real estate market is starting to find its feet again, with improved migration data set to underpin demand, even with global uncertainty still hanging over the market.

The latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack shows that while sales activity eased in March, property values still edged higher, rising 0.3% over the first quarter of 2026. In the process, the total value of New Zealand real estate has climbed to a substantial $1.66 trillion.

“While the US–Israel–Iran conflict remains a source of global uncertainty, one certainty is that residential real estate continues to be New Zealand’s favourite asset class,” said James Shepherd, General Manager of Raine & Horne New Zealand.

In comparison, the total market capitalisation of listed equities is $184 billion, dwarfed by residential real estate but also commercial property, which is valued at a collective $340 billion. According to Cotality, residential real estate accounts for 48% of total household assets, up five percentage points since 2021.

The Cotality data also showed that key population centres such as Christchurch (up 2.4% in the 12 months to March 2026) and Dunedin (up 2%) are continuing to show resilience, alongside smaller cities such as Invercargill. Tauranga has also recorded 2% growth over the same period.

Across the buying segments, first home buyers continue to show no signs of fatigue according to Cotality, maintaining a share of more than 27% of property purchases in the first quarter of 2026.

Continued access to low-deposit lending allowances remains a key support for first-time buyers. Meanwhile, mortgaged multiple property owners account for around 24–25% of activity, with movers sitting at approximately 26%, slightly below their more typical share of closer to 28%.

In more good news for long-term investors, while the Cotality research shows that property rents are still falling in many parts of the country, these falls may not necessarily last too much longer, given that net migration is now showing signs of a lift and the stock of rental listings has dropped a bit.

According to a report from financial institution ASB^*, migration continued to strengthen over February. Even discounting for volatile revisions, the working age population growth is starting in 2026 stronger than the RBNZ’s last published forecast. The report added that the “Kiwi flight looks to have peaked, and we expect the improving net immigration trend to subsist as Middle East ructions defer OE (overseas experience) plans for New Zealanders. Non-NZ arrivals [also] continue to grow.”

James Shepherd added, “Several factors are beginning to work in favour of the real estate market, including improved net migration, which usually augurs well for a pickup in rental demand.”

Thinking of making a move? Call your local Raine & Horne agent today.

*https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/asb/documents/reports/economic-note/asb-2026-feb-migration.pdf