Many market commentors are predicting 2026 will be a year of real estate growth, with the weaker phase of the Kiwi market over the past four years finally behind us.

The big question is how much growth is in store, and whether possible headwinds such as global issues and more locally debate about regulation and a possible capital gains tax as the election, expected towards the end of the year, approaches.

From an economic perspective there are plenty of positives. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand anticipates GDP growth of around 3% in 2026 with rising employment and the unemployment rate to drift downwards. If this comes to pass it would be supportive of property sales activity and put upward pressure on house prices.

The latest MintHC survey by highly regarded independent economist Tony Alexander found that New Zealand businesses were strongly confident of better economic conditions through 2026 and were backing this up with plans for increased spending on recruitment. For the first time in the almost three-year history of the survey more businesses planned to raise inventories than cut them, Tony Alexander said.

In its 2026 outlook, Cotality noted mortgage rate cuts throughout 2025 would continue to flow through to household finances in 2026 and with around 12% of existing loans on floating rates and 33% fixed but due to reprice within the next 3-6 months this should benefit the economy as well as feed into extra housing activity.

“After a calendar year total of around 90,000 sales in 2025, we anticipate property sales volumes heading up to around 100,000 in 2026 (and possibly higher in 2027). A figure of around 5% for national growth in median property values seems plausible,” Cotality said.

Raine & Horne New Zealand General Manager James Shepherd said that while 2025 has been a strong year for first home buyers and investors with multiple properties there was a strong diversion in key markets due to the country’s two-speed economy over the year.

“Markets like Canterbury, Southland and Waikato, which are more exposed to agriculture have performed well, but it is markets like Auckland and some main centres showing softer performance that need improvement.

“We are expecting better things in 2026 and certainly at Raine & Horne we are ready to cater for increased demand as economic recovery continues. Many people are currently thinking of other things with the Christmas season upon us, but we expect to see upward trends when people return from holidays with a brighter view of the year ahead and start to act accordingly,” James said. 

Whether you want to buy, sell or rent a property, don’t hesitate to contact your local Raine & Horne office.