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A tale of two halves sets the stage for a solid 2024 for NZ property

December 18, 2023

The property market in New Zealand in 2023 could be best described as a 'year of two distinct halves,' as indicated by CoreLogic's Best of the Best report. However, the enduring affinity of New Zealanders for real estate is anticipated to continue propelling demand and values throughout 2024.

In April, sales volumes plunged to their lowest point in approximately four decades, registering a mere 60,475 in a 12-month moving total. Concurrently, national property values experienced a further 5% decline over the year, as reported by CoreLogic.

Now, sales volumes are demonstrating a consistent upward trajectory monthly. However, despite robust percentage gains of 10-15%, the considerable rise has not yet translated into a substantial increase in the overall number of real estate transactions, owing to the initial low base.

Nevertheless, a constant and unyielding aspiration endures: the desire to own a home. “The traditional New Zealand dream of owning a family home will persist in 2024, with the 'bank of mum and dad' continuing to support younger generations by assisting with deposits,” said Keith Niederer, General Manager NZ, Raine & Horne.

However, the capital gains seen during the peak of the pandemic won’t be repeated in 2024. “Expectations next year suggest a more stabilised market where buyers will be discerning, valuing well-presented, quality homes in prime locations,” Keith said.

Keith stated that in 2024, the dynamics within different regions will hold considerable importance. He pointed out that in Wellington, homebuyers might face economic challenges stemming from uncertainties in public service jobs tied to government transitions. However, Keith also highlighted the potential investment prospects in other regions, especially in smaller towns across the South Island.

“Locations such as Invercargill and the West Coast, albeit known for higher rainfall, are considered affordable for investors eyeing growth prospects.”

The government’s approach to fiscal management will be pivotal in shaping the real estate market, Keith also noted. The new Government, for example, has announced it won’t provide the $1.5 billion funding to KiwiRail to help with the growing cost of replacing the Inter-islander ferry fleet with mega ferries. “This will project would have created jobs and in turn demand for real estate,” Keith said.

“Along with the fluctuations in the economy, the narrative of real estate in 2024 will be steered by prudence, quality, and astute investment choices."

Whether you seeking to sell or buy a property please contact your nearest Raine & Horne office.